Iran’s leadership is closely monitoring recent developments in Venezuela following an unprecedented US military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife. The event has raised serious concerns in Tehran that Iran itself could become a target of similar US action.
Maduro, a close ally of Iran, had remained in power after disputed elections in 2024 that were widely criticized as fraudulent and not recognized by the European Union or Germany. After his capture on Saturday, he appeared in a New York court on Monday to face US charges related to narco-terrorism.
The operation marks a significant escalation in US foreign policy under President Donald Trump, signaling a willingness to use direct military force to remove hostile regimes. Critics argue the intervention violates international law and the UN Charter, but supporters say it demonstrates renewed American resolve.
Iran swiftly condemned the arrest. A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry described the operation as a kidnapping and demanded Maduro’s immediate release, calling the action illegal and unjustifiable. Tehran confirmed it remains in contact with Venezuelan authorities and emphasized that bilateral relations remain unchanged.
Although Iran and Venezuela differ greatly in geography, culture, and religion, their alliance has been forged through shared opposition to the United States. Over the past three decades, this alignment has developed into cooperation across oil, finance, industry, and security sectors, despite relatively modest trade volumes and limited direct exchanges.
The events in Venezuela come at a sensitive moment for Iran, which has been experiencing nationwide protests for more than a week. Demonstrations have been fueled by economic hardship, soaring prices, and long-standing political grievances. Protesters are demanding broad social and political reforms, increasing pressure on Iran’s leadership.
President Trump has issued renewed warnings to Tehran, stating that the US is closely watching how Iranian authorities respond to the protests. He said that if demonstrators are killed, the United States would respond forcefully, though he did not specify what measures might be taken.
In June, US forces struck Iranian nuclear facilities during a conflict involving Israel and Iran, aimed at degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities. These attacks heightened regional tensions and underscored the risk of further escalation.
According to German Bundestag Vice President Omid Nouripour, reactions inside Iran are mixed. While many Iranians desire political change, there is widespread skepticism about US intervention, given past experiences and uncertainty over what would follow a regime’s collapse.
Analysts say the arrest of Maduro has had a psychological impact in Tehran. Damon Golriz, a researcher at the Institute for Geopolitics in The Hague, argues that Iran’s leadership now sees itself as a potential military target. He views the operation as part of a shift in US policy, contrasting with Trump’s earlier reluctance to target Iran’s top leadership directly.
Iranian officials have also issued warnings. Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, cautioned the US to protect its troops in the Middle East, where approximately 45,000 American soldiers are stationed. In June, Iran launched missiles at a major US base in Qatar in retaliation for strikes on its nuclear sites, an attack that reportedly caused no casualties after advance warning was given.
The developments also intersect with internal power dynamics in Iran, where discussions about succession to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei are ongoing. Unlike Venezuela, analysts note, Iran lacks a unified or organized opposition capable of quickly filling a power vacuum.
For Iranian decision-makers, the key question is whether the US action in Venezuela signals a broader willingness to conduct regime-change operations beyond the Western Hemisphere. Some observers believe this could alter Iran’s strategic calculations toward both Washington and Israel.
At the same time, increased external pressure could provide Iranian authorities with justification to intensify crackdowns on protesters. Iranian journalist Reza Talebi, writing from exile, warned that expectations of foreign military intervention could weaken domestic protest movements. He added that believing US pressure is primarily intended to support the Iranian people is misguided.
